Gold touched ₹75,000 per 10 gm. Should you buy gold or sell gold at this point?
This article explores the probabilities of gold price movement, both up and down, from current price levels.
Gold touched ₹75,000 per 10 gm. Should you buy gold or sell gold at this point?
Posted on 28 Apr 2024 • Updated on: 07 Feb 2026
Author: Sayan Sircar
14 mins read
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This article explores the probabilities of gold price movement, both up and down, from current price levels.
📚 Table of Contents
- Why has gold reached ₹75,000?
- How gold has moved in the short term in India?
- How much gold price expected to move in the next few months?
- Will gold rise or fall now?
- How to Use The Gold-Silver Ratio to Decide Whether to Buy More Gold or Less Gold?
- What should you do if you need to purchase gold soon?
Why has gold reached ₹75,000?
The price of 99.9% purity gold recently (20-Apr-2024) reached a lifetime high of more than ₹75,000/10gm on the back of news of the Iran-Israel conflict. Gold prices, always track the risk of geopolitical risks, and have reached today’s level after a 52-week low of ₹58,000/10gm in October 2023.
This article explores how gold prices have moved in price bands like -5% to 5%, -10% to 10% etc. in India in the short-term (1-month, 2-month up to 1 year) so that investors looking to enter or exit gold can make an informed decision.
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How gold has moved in the short term in India?
The chart above shows rolling gold price returns for various short-term periods (up to a year) since 2007. We have used the beginning of month 24CT gold prices since March 2007.
How much gold price expected to move in the next few months?
| Range | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% to 5% | 74% | 59% | 53% | 35% | 22% |
| -10% to 10% | 94% | 88% | 78% | 65% | 42% |
| -15% to 15% | 99% | 96% | 91% | 82% | 56% |
| -20% to 20% | 100% | 99% | 98% | 90% | 66% |
| -25% to 25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 76% |
| -30% to 30% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 85% |
The table above shows that historically
- it is virtually certain that in the short-term (up to 3 months), gold prices do not move beyond the range of +/- 15%
- longer the horizon, the more the chances of a sharp movement in either direction
- there is a drastic fall in the certainty of price movement as the period goes to 1 year. We reach the 95% level only if we expand the range from -40% to 40%
There is no chance that anyone can predict actual price movements. The best we can do is look at the historical probabilities and extrapolate the trend to short periods only.
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Will gold rise or fall now?
| Probability | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise | 59% | 60% | 64% | 74% | 77% |
| Fall | 41% | 40% | 36% | 26% | 23% |
If we ignore the amount of change and just look at the direction, there is more chance, historically, that gold will rise in the short term. However, these are probabilities. Just like a coin toss does not guarantee either a head or tail, the table does not guarantee any particular direction of movement.
To understand whether to purchase gold now or later:
How to Use The Gold-Silver Ratio to Decide Whether to Buy More Gold or Less Gold?
The gold-silver ratio is the ratio of the Price of Gold per ounce (in USD) to the Price of Silver per Ounce (in USD) or simply the number of ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold (1 ounce = 28.34952 grams).
In India, we can take the Gold-Silver Ratio as the number of grams of silver needed to buy one gram of gold.
The current value of the Gold-Silver Ratio in India is 65.47.
A rising ratio means that gold is outperforming silver and vice versa. This calculator shows, using historical data, how investors today can use the Gold-Silver Ratio to determine what to buy next: gold or silver. If you are looking to decide whether to buy gold next or silver, you can use this Gold-Silver Ratio calculator:
Gold-Silver Ratio Investment Strategy
Analyze historical performance across different ratio brackets to determine the best asset class for your next investment.
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Gold-Silver Ratio: --
Update prices to see current market signal.
HISTORICAL RATIO TREND (SINCE 2015)
Line shows daily data | Orange dots represent yearly averages
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE BY RATIO
| Ratio Range | Avg Gold Return | Avg Silver Return | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading historical data... | |||
*Returns are calculated based on historical daily data periods corresponding to the ratio brackets.
What should you do if you need to purchase gold soon?
If you must buy gold soon, say for a wedding, you should consider what happens if the gold price actually moves between now and the wedding.
If your target is to buy 100gm of gold (around ₹7.5 lakhs at current prices), as per the data below:
| In grams | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 to 105 gm | 74% | 59% | 53% | 35% | 22% |
| 90 to 110 gm | 94% | 88% | 78% | 65% | 42% |
| 85 to 115 gm | 99% | 96% | 91% | 82% | 56% |
| 80 to 120 gm | 100% | 99% | 98% | 90% | 66% |
| 75 to 125 gm | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 76% |
| 70 to 130 gm | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 85% |
There is an 88% chance, for example, that the gold you will end up buying in the next 2 months will be within 90-110gm for the same amount of money. It may not be possible to distinguish, without using a jeweller’s scale, if a piece of jewellery has 90 vs 110 gm of gold. Of course, the best way to accumulate gold for a wedding in the far future is slightly different: What is the best way to accumulate gold for your child’s wedding?
Related Articles
- Gold-Silver Ratio: Should You Buy Gold or Silver Right Now?
- Gold Enters Bear Market: Should You Buy Gold or Sell Gold?
- A complete history of gold prices in India since the 1950s
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This page titled Gold touched ₹75,000 per 10 gm. Should you buy gold or sell gold at this point? first appeared on 28 Apr 2024 at https://arthgyaan.com
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