A common question among investors is that given stock markets are volatile, what would be the minimum duration of investing so that the principal is not lost. A variation of this question is what kind of return is expected if an investor invests in SIP or lumpsum form for a certain number of years.
We can use historical data to calculate the probability of getting certain returns. However, we should keep in mind that the actual return might differ from the predicted numbers as per the definition of probability.
With this in mind, we will analyse returns in the Indian stock market using the Nifty 50 index and active mutual funds for a single lumpsum investment. We can visualise the volatility of equity markets investing with a graph like this:
How long should we invest not to lose money
For lumpsum investments
We will use Nifty 50 price index data from 1993 to calculate this probability across multiple holding periods. We see that only beyond ten years or more, the likelihood of losing money drops to mostly zero.
(click to open in a new tab)
If we repeat this analysis with some chosen active funds with data from 2006, we see the same result.
(click to open in a new tab)
For SIP investments
We use actual Nifty 50 price index returns to show the result of running a 25-year SIP. The result shows a significant variation in the final portfolio amount depending on when the SIP was started and the intermediate yearly returns.
Did you know that we have a private Facebook group which you can join for free and ask your own questions? Please click the button below to join.
How long should we invest to get a particular return
We will now calculate the probability of getting a particular return, say 12%, across multiple holding periods. By this, we try to see that across various holding periods, from one week to 15 years, the probability that the XIRR is at least 12%.
For lumpsum
(click to open in a new tab)
We see two trends demonstrating the volatility of the market:
as the holding period increases, it is more likely to reach the target return
as the target return increases, it becomes more and more challenging to get the desired target return
Investors need to be mindful that investing in lumpsum over short periods has a considerable probability of loss.
Letās take the same data and run a SIP instead for various periods from one year to 20 years. We see that there is no guarantee that just by running a SIP, you can reach a desired target return simply by investing longer and longer. For example, to get an XIRR of 12% via SIP, the probability is less than 40%. We have achieved this conclusion before as well when discussing the returns we get for our SIP calculator:
I have started a 15k SIP. How much money will I have in 15 years?
Interpretation of the results and the way forward
When using any result based on probability, we need to be very clear of our expectations. The counter-question regarding keeping money safe while investing in equities is that is it the correct expectation?
Equity investors, specifically those who have been investing for some time, understand that the equity markets go up and down. This experience would lead them to adopt risk management methods like rebalancing or goal-based investing since investors should prefer not to leave things to chance.
What's next? You can join the Arthgyaan WhatsApp community
You can stay updated on our latest content and learn about our webinars.
Our community is fully private so that no one, other than the admin, can see your name or number. Also, we will not spam you.
To understand how this article can help you:
If you have a comment or question about this article
The following button will open a form with the link of this page populated for context:
If you liked this article, please leave us a rating
This article shows how a very typical salaried couple with one child can invest for future goals using the Arthgyaan goal-based investing tool.
Previous and next articles:
ReviewInternational Investing
Should you invest in PGIM Real Estate fund NFO?
This post discusses new Real Estate feeder funds being launched in India and whether investors should invest in such funds.
Published: 18 November 2021
9 MIN READ
Behaviour
How to climb the wealth ladder in India?
1 lakh, 1 crore or 10 crores: how much do we need to be wealthy and what we should do at every step of the wealth ladder.
Published: 26 November 2021
8 MIN READ
Latest articles:
Portfolio Construction
Which stage of your career is most important for wealth creation?
This article looks at the various stages of your career from the perspective of maximum wealth creation.
Published: 17 April 2024
4 MIN READ
NewsTax
When should you verify your Income Tax return as per the new rules effective from 1st April 2024?
This article explains the new rules regarding income tax return verification which are now in place for tax returns to be filed 1st April 2024 onwards.
Disclaimer: Content on this site is for educational purpose only and is not financial advice. Nothing on this site should be construed as an offer or recommendation to buy/sell any financial product or service. Please consult a registered investment advisor before making any investments.
This post titled What returns should we expect from equity investing? first appeared on 22 Nov 2021 at https://arthgyaan.com
Portfolio Construction
